UN withdraws following attack

The UN has suspended its evacuation operations for ships in the Strait of Hormuz after one of the vessels participating in the operation came under direct fire, according to Seeking Alpha. The decision underscores the serious security risk now prevailing in one of the world's busiest and most strategically sensitive maritime routes.

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow passage between Iran and Oman connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Approximately 20 percent of the world's total oil trade passes through this geographic chokepoint daily, according to available research data.

The Strait of Hormuz controls one in every five barrels of oil traded globally – a closure here hits energy markets immediately
UN halts evacuation operations in Hormuz following attack on vessel - Bilde 1

Iran's toll system and IRGC control

The incident takes place in a context where Iran has, since March 2026, operated a formalized toll system for shipping traffic through the strait. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) demands up to $2 million per vessel for transit passage, according to available analyses. The fees are accepted in Chinese yuan, Bitcoin, or stablecoins.

In March 2026, Iran formally adopted a "Strait of Hormuz Management Plan" that codified this system and IRGC oversight. Shipping companies that pay these fees risk serious sanctions exposure under U.S. and international sanctions regimes, according to experts.

$2M
Max. fee per vessel
20%
Share of global oil trade volume through the strait
$150–160
Possible Brent price per barrel upon inventory depletion (ExxonMobil)
UN halts evacuation operations in Hormuz following attack on vessel - Bilde 2

Market implications: Oil and macro

ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods and Senior Vice President Neil Chapman warned in June 2026 that the oil market has not yet fully priced in the consequences of the Iran conflict and a potential closure of Hormuz. Chapman's models indicate that Brent crude could reach $150–160 per barrel if existing inventory stocks are depleted – a level that would in turn produce demand-dampening effects globally.

Apollo's chief economist Torsten Sløk warned in June 2026 against the opposite dynamic: if Hormuz reopens, increased oil supply could paradoxically contribute to overheating an already tight economy and force the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Risk-off sentiment dominates markets

The current market regime is characterized as "risk-off," with a Fear and Greed Index reading of 13 out of 100 – a level indicating extreme fear among investors. Bitcoin is trading around $59,887, well below the cost of production, which according to available data rose to approximately $88,000 in April 2026 as a result of an energy crisis.

Research from Wintermute OTC chief Jake Ostrovski points to $100 per barrel of oil functioning as the market's unofficial threshold: oil prices above this level have historically put pressure on crypto assets and risk equities in general.

The UN's suspension of evacuation operations will likely be interpreted by market participants as a fresh escalation in tensions around Hormuz – and may contribute to further volatility in energy prices in the days ahead. 24markets is following developments.