APREX · EST. 202624markets Global daily market news
Central banks reprice lower: RBNZ leads with 85% hike probability while Fed wavers at 54%
A week marked by geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East and falling oil prices below $80 has triggered a broad but moderate dovish repricing across global rate markets. The RBNZ stands out with an 85% probability of a hike at its next meeting, while the Fed's probability has slipped to 54% — leaving the market split.
Fed official warns: Asset prices too high – ready to surprise the market
Federal Reserve's Alberto Musalem sent a clear signal that the central bank is willing to go against market expectations if inflation risks demand it – and he believes financial conditions are far too loose.
Eurozone retail sales collapse -0.3% in June — ECB cut bets rise as growth falters
Eurozone retail sales fell 0.3% in June against an expected +0.1%, driven by broad-based declines across food and non-food sectors. The disappointment deepens an already weak activity picture and increases pressure on the ECB for further easing — with direct implications for EUR/USD and European risk assets.
