TL;DR

  • Palantir's U.S. commercial revenue surpassed its government business for the first time in the third quarter of 2026.
  • The company raised its full-year guidance to more than $8.5 billion in total revenue and more than $3.56 billion in U.S. commercial revenue.
  • Cash holdings stand at $10.4 billion, and the "Rule of 40" score hit 158 percent.
  • The growth comes as overall market risk appetite remains low, with the Fear & Greed Index at 26 out of 100.

A historic turning point for Palantir

Palantir Technologies reported third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday that, according to Nasdaq Markets, beat analysts' expectations by a wide margin. The most striking finding is that the company's U.S. commercial revenue, meaning sales to private businesses, exceeded revenue from the U.S. public sector for the first time in the company's history.

According to the company's quarterly report and shareholder letter, published via Business Wire, U.S. commercial revenue came in at $984 million for the quarter — a 148 percent increase compared to the same period last year, and 29 percent compared to the previous quarter. By comparison, U.S. government revenue came in at $953 million, up 96 percent year-over-year.

$984 million
U.S. commercial revenue
$2.31 billion
Total quarterly revenue
158%
Rule of 40 score

Total U.S. revenue landed at $1.937 billion, a 119 percent increase from the previous year, accounting for roughly 84 percent of the company's total revenue. For the entire group, revenue came in at $2.31 billion, up 96 percent compared to the third quarter of 2024.

Palantir shifts the balance of power: Commercial overtakes government - Bilde 1

From niche provider to large-scale growth company

It's worth putting these figures in perspective. Just two years ago, in the third quarter of 2024, Palantir's U.S. commercial business had revenue of $179 million and 321 customers. Growth has thus accelerated sharply in a very short time, according to the company's own figures.

During the quarter, Palantir closed 212 deals worth at least $1 million, of which 107 were over $5 million and 64 over $10 million. The balance sheet appears solid, with $10.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasury bills at the end of the quarter.

None of us have ever seen a business at this scale grow at this pace and with this sustained intensity

That quote, from CEO Alex Karp in the shareholder letter, sums up the company's own description of the development. Karp points out that a 29 percent sequential growth rate in the U.S. commercial business, if annualized, would be extraordinary for any publicly traded software company in the country.

Palantir shifts the balance of power: Commercial overtakes government - Bilde 2

Raised guidance for the rest of the year

Palantir has raised its forecasts for the full fiscal year 2026. The company now expects U.S. commercial revenue to exceed $3.56 billion for the year, corresponding to an annual growth rate of at least 143 percent. At the same time, guidance for total revenue has been raised to between $8.530 and $8.534 billion, representing growth of around 91 percent for the entire group.

The company also expects adjusted free cash flow of between $4.8 and $5.0 billion for the year, according to the shareholder letter.

Palantir claims the market is now dividing companies into winners and losers — with nothing in between

Karp's message on "sovereign AI" and a binary future

In the letter to shareholders, Karp went further than just the numbers. He described what he calls the "sovereign AI" movement as a force creating a dramatic divide between institutions that succeed with artificial intelligence and those that don't. According to Karp, every institution, whether public or private, is being forced into one of two categories.

He further claims that industries ranging from banking and insurance to hospitals and law firms will either be fundamentally transformed or swept aside, and that there will no longer be any middle ground for companies that fail to keep up with the developments. These are Karp's own, strongly worded statements, and it's worth emphasizing that they represent the company's own interpretation of market dynamics, not an independent assessment.

The contrast with the rest of the AI sector

Palantir's numbers come at a time when the market in general is marked by risk aversion. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 26 out of 100, a level indicating fear among investors, and bitcoin is trading around $76,710, well below previous highs. In this climate, several other AI-related stocks have struggled to convince the market that their growth rate is sustainable, while Palantir is delivering accelerating growth quarter after quarter.

There is still reason for caution, however. Although the figures from the company's own reporting are solid, it is only Palantir's own forecasts that underpin expectations for further growth in 2026. Historically, though, the company has a track record of beating its own targets in recent quarters, which has contributed to the strong market reaction.

For Norwegian investors with exposure to U.S. technology stocks, whether directly or through funds, the Palantir story illustrates how divided the AI sector has become: certain companies with a clear commercial business model continue to grow strongly, while other parts of the sector struggle to show profitability at the same pace.