What's driving the move

What looks like a classic support test is in reality a structural unwinding of an institutional trade. According to Galaxy Digital's Head of Firmwide Research, Alex Thorn, the withdrawal from spot ETFs isn't primarily about weakened Bitcoin sentiment, but about mathematics:

"That arithmetic, not the price, is why the multi-strategy desks left." — Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital

The annualized CME futures basis (the cash-and-carry spread between futures and spot) has compressed from 7.9% to 4.8% — from 3.9 percentage points above 3-month T-bills to just 0.6 percentage points above. After execution fees, roll costs, and margin financing, multi-strategy funds are left with a net return of around 1.5 percentage points above the cash rate. That's not enough to justify the capital commitment.

CFTC Commitments of Traders data confirms the move: asset managers' net long futures positions have fallen 57%, from 43,300 BTC to 18,400 BTC, while leveraged funds' short positions (the other leg of the basis trade) have shrunk identically — from 71,400 BTC to 30,600 BTC. Galaxy Research's 13F analysis shows that nine multi-strategy players, including Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, have cut spot ETF exposure by 68,000 BTC (~$5.4 billion), a reduction of between 29% and 100% of their respective positions. Total institutional 13F holdings fell 14%, from 355,000 to 307,000 BTC.

At the same time, risk aversion on Wall Street is putting pressure on the crypto market. Nervousness around AI-related capital expenditures has weighed on tech stocks ahead of the open, and the Federal Reserve's rate decision along with Warsh's press conference provided no relief for risk appetite. Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq is well documented, and right now the pattern resembles a high-beta tech stock more than "digital gold."

Key figures

$80,085
BTC price now
$773.5M
ETF outflow (2 days)
-28%
CME OI change (Oct)
51/100
Fear & Greed
$154.23M
Liquidations Oct 21–24
76.5%
Share of long positions
$34.52M
Short-squeeze liquidations
75.4%
Share of short positions
Bitcoin tests $80,000 again: $773 million in ETF outflows and basis trade unwinding - Bilde 1

Market reaction and positioning

The clearest pattern is the asymmetry in liquidation data. When Bitcoin broke down from $84,840 to the low of $79,145 between October 21 and 24, $154.23 million was liquidated across more than 62,000 accounts — 76.5% of this was long positions, according to CoinGlass. When the price then bounced back above $80,600, $34.52 million was liquidated within 24 hours, of which 75.4% this time were shorts. Across a broader multi-asset sample, around $900 million in leveraged positions were wiped out, with shorts accounting for 86–90% of the hit.

This tells a consistent story: the rallies are driven by forced covering of short positions, not organic buying volume. An analysis from Yuanta Securities sums it up bluntly:

"Short covering, not demand." — Yuanta Securities

At the same time, there are counterweights. CryptoQuant and exchange data recorded 14,942 BTC withdrawn from exchanges in a single day on October 27 — the largest daily withdrawal in five weeks, a signal historically interpreted as accumulation rather than selling pressure. Glassnode identifies the cost-basis band for spot ETF buyers and corporate treasuries at $80,000–$81,500 — exactly where the price is now struggling.

Bitcoin tests $80,000 again: $773 million in ETF outflows and basis trade unwinding - Bilde 2

Technical picture

Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the $80,000 level over the past week, but each rebound has been weaker than the last. The broader uptrend structure from earlier this fall remains technically intact, but momentum has cooled markedly following attempts to break out above the $87,000 level in September and earlier in October.

A convincing break below $80,000 opens the door to a fall toward the $76,000 zone, and then the September low just under $75,000

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju warns that a confirmed break below $80,000 risks triggering a cascade of long liquidations, with secondary air pockets down toward the $73,000 region. Should that zone also give way, a stronger retest of $70,000 comes back into play. Meanwhile, the CME open interest decline of 36,545 BTC in October means there are fewer leveraged positions in the market that can create explosive moves in either direction — volatility may be somewhat dampened in the short term, but the structure is more fragile.

What to watch

  • The $80,000 level: A convincing break (closed daily candles below, not just intraday wicks) is the signal traders are waiting for
  • ETF flows this week: Does the outflow trend from October continue (MTD net negative between $202M and $386M), or does it stabilize?
  • CME basis: If the spread between futures and spot compresses further toward zero, more multi-strategy exits are likely
  • Nasdaq correlation: As long as AI capex concerns keep the tech sector weak, Bitcoin will likely follow it down
  • Exchange outflow data: Continued large net outflows from exchanges (like 14,942 BTC on October 27) would be a counterargument against a bearish interpretation