Oil price above $100 and hot PPI shake stock futures and bitcoin

Oil shock sets the tone for the trading day

In recent days, the oil market has been marked by severe turmoil. WTI crude rose 6.7 percent to $102.48 a barrel, while Brent oil at its highest reached nearly $110 per barrel — a rise of around 11 percent in a week, according to data cited by TipRanks and Investing.com. The backdrop is escalating conflict in the Middle East and attacks on shipping lanes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which have fueled fears of supply disruptions.

The sharp oil rally has spread further into the US Producer Price Index (PPI) figure for August, which rose 0.4 percent month-over-month and 5.4 percent year-over-year — above analysts' expectations of 5.3 percent. The July figure was simultaneously revised upward to 4.8 percent. Core PPI, which excludes food, energy and trade, came in at between 4.6 and 4.7 percent annually, according to figures from the US Department of Labor (BLS) cited by several financial media outlets.

The energy component in the PPI figure was particularly pronounced: total wholesale energy costs jumped 4.2 percent in a single month, with diesel prices alone up as much as 24.1 percent.

Bond market reacts sharply

The combination of oil prices above $100 and a hot PPI figure has sent US Treasury yields to multi-year highs. The US 10-year yield rose to between 4.96 and 4.98 percent — just below the psychologically important 5 percent threshold. The 30-year yield climbed to around 5.35–5.38 percent, the highest level since June 2007, according to Kobeissi Letter and Cointelegraph.

The US Treasury Department attempted to dampen the rate movement through debt buybacks of between $5.2 and $6 billion, but the measure failed to halt the rise.

The bond market is literally fighting the US Treasury Department — higher oil prices and a hot PPI figure increase the probability of further rate hikes

This is a quote from the analysis firm Kobeissi Letter, cited by Cointelegraph. According to CME FedWatch and LSEG data, the market's priced probability of a new 25-basis-point rate hike from the Federal Reserve has increased to between 70 and 76 percent, up from 61–64 percent just before the PPI figure was released.

Bitcoin and the crypto market under pressure

The sharp rate reaction immediately hit risk assets. Bitcoin fell between 2 and 4.3 percent, from around $78,500 to below $77,000, with intraday lows near $76,840–$77,180, according to figures from TipRanks and Investing.com. The overall crypto market shrank by 1.55 percent to $2.62 trillion.

The movement triggered between $386 and $456 million in liquidations across crypto exchanges over 24 hours, of which around 78 percent — $270 to $360 million — were long positions being forcibly closed. Spot bitcoin ETFs simultaneously saw accelerating net outflows, with $120.2 million flowing out in a single trading day, following an outflow of $46.6 million the day before.

Trading analysts at QCP Capital describe the situation as a "macro trap" for cryptocurrency: when rates rise due to cost shocks rather than strong economic growth, non-yield-bearing assets like bitcoin lose their relative appeal at the same time as borrowing costs increase.

Oracle surprises positively — but at what cost?

Amid the macroeconomic turmoil, Oracle delivered its quarterly figures for fiscal year 2027 on Tuesday this week, with numbers the market will need to digest alongside the PPI shock. The company reported revenue of $19.35 billion, up 30 percent year-over-year and above the consensus estimate of $19.13 billion. Cloud infrastructure revenue (OCI) rose as much as 121 percent to $7.4 billion.

Oracle's backlog of remaining performance obligations (RPO) reached a record $664 billion, up $209 billion from the previous year, driven by more than $30 billion in new AI cloud contracts signed in this quarter alone. The company also delivered 850 megawatts of new data center capacity and over 300,000 GPUs to customers — roughly three times the volume of the previous quarter.

Behind the strong growth figures, however, lies significant capital intensity: operating cash flow was $23.1 billion, but investments of $28.5 billion meant free cash flow ended negative at $5.4 billion. Oracle nevertheless raised its full-year guidance to at least $90 billion in revenue.

Oracle CEO Clay Magouyrk stated that the company "is delivering data centers and GPU capacity at a pace that would have seemed impossible just a year ago." CFO Hilary Maxson pointed out that around half of the backlog is expected to convert to sales over the next 36 months, and emphasized that the new contract structures do not affect plans for capital raising.

What does this mean for Norwegian investors?

The sharp rise in the oil price has direct relevance for the Norwegian economy and the Oslo Stock Exchange, where the energy sector makes up a significant share of the benchmark index. A higher oil price normally strengthens the earnings of Norwegian oil and gas companies, but at the same time, increased global inflation and rate expectations can dampen risk appetite in international markets — something that has historically spilled over into Norwegian stocks and the krone exchange rate. Norges Bank will likely follow US rate developments closely in its upcoming rate assessments, as global rate movements often set the parameters for room to maneuver in Norwegian monetary policy as well.

It remains to be seen whether the PPI figure and the oil price surge represent a transitory shock or the beginning of a more lasting stagflation concern in the market. Investors should note that several of the figures in this article are drawn from secondary sources and analysis firms, and should be verified against official data from US authorities and the central bank before being used as a basis for investment decisions.