Iran Deal: Hormuz Opens in 30 Days – Oil Price Under Pressure

A Framework That Moves Markets

It is not the announcement itself, but the details of the draft agreement that are now driving market movements. Iranian state outlet Mehr published on Friday a 14-article draft agreement – a so-called Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) – which, according to the source, lays the groundwork for a lasting ceasefire and normalization between the US and Iran.

The document sets a hard 30-day deadline for two key events: the complete lifting of the US naval blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The strait, one of the world's most critical shipping lanes for crude oil, is set to open under Iranian administration in coordination with Oman.

Direct Implications for Oil Prices

For commodity markets, two elements of the draft agreement are particularly market-moving. First: the suspension of US sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemicals takes effect under the agreement's terms. This means Iranian barrels could potentially return to the global market within weeks, placing direct supply pressure on Brent and WTI.

Second, the 30-day deadline for reopening Hormuz reinforces this picture. The market now has a concrete timeline to price against – which reduces the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil contracts.

During the Hormuz crisis from February to March 2026, Brent rose 46 percent, according to market data. A normalization could rapidly reverse parts of that premium.

$24 Billion Released – Half Immediately

The draft agreement stipulates that $24 billion in currently frozen Iranian assets are to be released. Half of this amount is to be made available before the formal 60-day negotiation period begins. The remainder will be released during those talks, which are set to cover nuclear issues and a roadmap for the full removal of sanctions.

However, political friction surrounds another clause: the US and its allies are required to present reconstruction plans for Iran with a minimum value of $300 billion. According to ForexLive, this is a politically demanding requirement that could generate friction in the subsequent negotiations.

Missile Program Kept Out – A Strategic Choice

Perhaps the most politically charged detail in the draft agreement is what is not included. Iran's ballistic missile program and the country's financial and material support for regional allies – such as Hezbollah and the Houthi movement – are explicitly excluded from the final negotiating agenda.

This represents a significant concession to Tehran. Iran retains strategic room to maneuver in precisely the areas that Israel and parts of the US foreign policy establishment have regarded as the core of the regional threat. ForexLive notes that the exclusion will raise questions in Washington and Tel Aviv about the agreement's strategic value beyond the immediate ceasefire.

Norwegian Perspective: Oil Prices and Export Revenues

For the Norwegian economy, the development is relevant. A lower oil price resulting from increased Iranian supply will affect the revenues of Norwegian oil and gas companies such as Equinor, as well as the state's petroleum revenues and the return expectations of the Government Pension Fund Global. The OSEBX is sensitive to oil price movements, particularly energy stocks. If Brent falls markedly from current levels, this could quickly be reflected in the Oslo Stock Exchange's energy sector.

Uncertainty Remains

It is important to emphasize that this is a draft agreement published by Iranian state media – not a fully ratified deal. Whether Washington accepts the premises, particularly the $300 billion demand and the exclusion of the missile program, remains to be seen. The source material is based on Mehr News Agency and ForexLive, and independent verification of all details had not been completed at the time of publication.

The coming days will reveal whether the political actors find the draft agreement workable – or whether it falls apart in the details.