Eni CEO warns: Oil could surpass $100 in 2027

Eni CEO sounds the alarm

The CEO of Italian energy giant Eni warns that oil prices could break through the psychologically significant $100-per-barrel threshold as early as 2027, should geopolitical tensions in the Middle East fail to ease. This is reported by Investing.com.

The timing of the warning is no coincidence. Brent crude surged more than 10 percent in just two trading days in July 2026 following U.S. military operations against Iran, reaching $75.68 per barrel. Markets are already on edge, and the scenario outlined by Eni's chief executive is regarded by a number of economists as realistic.

What does $100 oil mean for inflation?

The link between oil prices and global inflation is well documented. A 10 percent increase in oil prices has historically been associated with an average rise of 0.4 percentage points in domestic inflation, according to IMF data cited in the research literature.

Analyst Peter Malmqvist, an IFRS specialist, estimates that if oil climbs above $100 per barrel, it could lift inflation by a full percentage point — something that would likely force central banks to raise interest rates and increase the risk of a significant correction in global equity markets.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, has emphasized that sustained high oil prices tied to Middle East unrest would place particular pressure on lower- and middle-income groups, and erode consumer confidence.

Risk-off hits crypto hard

The ongoing risk-off regime — with the crypto fear/greed index currently sitting at 26 out of 100 — illustrates the connection clearly. Historically, sharp oil price surges have had a negative impact on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies through several mechanisms: inflation fears push central banks in a restrictive direction, tightening liquidity and dampening risk appetite.

In February 2026, when crude oil jumped 30 percent and surpassed $120 per barrel, Bitcoin fell from around $74,000 to between $65,000 and $66,000. A total of 94,058 traders were liquidated across crypto markets within a single 24-hour period, for a combined value of $364.4 million, according to market data cited in the research material.

Analyst Darkfost from CryptoQuant points to a historically inverse relationship between the Brent crude price and Bitcoin, where periods with Brent trading above its 365-day average often signal economic stress and can dampen Bitcoin's upside. Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,000, after lower oil prices and reduced geopolitical tensions temporarily improved sentiment.

Uncertainty and caveats

It is worth noting that oil price forecasts are notoriously unreliable. The Eni CEO is outlining a scenario contingent on Middle East tensions persisting — which is far from certain. New York Fed President John Williams stated in July 2026 that oil prices "should ultimately fall back," even as he acknowledged that inflation remains "far too high."

Assuming that oil will definitively break through $100 would be to overestimate the precision of such projections. What is more certain is that markets will react sharply to any further escalation in the region — something that current market sentiment already reflects.

Norwegian relevance: Oil revenues versus financial turbulence

For Norway, the picture is ambiguous. A higher oil price boosts revenues for the Government Pension Fund Global and improves conditions for Norwegian oil companies listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange. At the same time, inflationary pressures and potential interest rate hikes internationally could spill over into the Norwegian economy and influence Norges Bank's monetary policy considerations going forward.