XRP drops 70% from peak as spot demand climbs to highest since June — $1.10 is critical support

What's driving the move

XRP finds itself in a classic "buy the rumour, sell the news" situation in the wake of the Ripple-SEC lawsuit. The case was formally concluded in August 2025 when both parties withdrew their appeals, and the market had already priced in the victory during the July 2025 rally that drove the price to $3.65. What remains is a gradual disillusionment: regulatory clarity has been delivered, but the major catalyst — the CLARITY Act — is still hanging in the air.

CLARITY Act uncertainty is the primary headwind. The bipartisan bill, which would among other things permanently classify XRP as a digital commodity and clarify the boundary between the SEC and CFTC, originally targeted a presidential signature by July 4, 2026. As of July 24, 2026, the Senate vote remains delayed, according to available information from regulatory-tracking circles. This uncertainty acts as a ceiling on risk appetite around XRP specifically, and interacts negatively with the broader risk-off regime in the market (BTC trading at $64,001, Fear & Greed at 27/100).

Spot demand is nonetheless positive. Sources from CoinDesk-affiliated analysts and on-chain data platforms (including Glassnode and Kaiko spot aggregates) indicate that spot buying pressure has risen to its highest level since June 2026. This is not derivative-driven momentum — it is real accumulation in the spot market, which distinguishes this rally from purely speculative short-squeeze pressure. That said, RSI on the daily timeframe is in overbought territory at current price levels, which has historically signalled consolidation or correction in XRP.

ETF inflows are a structural support element. Seven US spot XRP ETFs launched between November 2025 and early 2026 have so far accumulated over $1.29 billion in net inflows, according to Bloomberg ETF data. JPMorgan estimates $4–8.4 billion in first-year flows if institutional demand holds. This is not insignificant capital and represents a long-term demand floor that did not exist a year ago.

Ripple's fundamental corporate position has strengthened. In July 2026, Ripple secured full MiCA licensing in the EU, opening the door to expanded payment operations in Europe — a market Ripple is already well positioned in through its network of over 300 financial institutions. The global remittance market is estimated at $685 billion, and XRP is the only crypto asset with a genuine institutional network targeting this segment. Nevertheless, Ripple continues to release 200–400 million new XRP monthly with minimal burn mechanisms, creating persistent inflationary pressure on the supply side.

The macro backdrop is not favourable. With BTC at $64,001 and the Fear & Greed index at 27/100 ("Extreme Fear"), there is no catalyst for broad risk appetite in crypto at the moment. XRP, which historically exhibits high beta against BTC in declining markets, is particularly vulnerable in this environment.

Key figures

Altcoin overview — XRP in context

XRP is not alone in struggling in this market, but there are some distinguishing characteristics that set it apart from its peers:

Compared to other L1 tokens, XRP has a unique regulatory profile that is now resolved in the US — something Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have not yet achieved to the same degree. Despite this, XRP trades at a significant discount to its 2025 peak levels, while SOL and ETH are both trading between 50% and 60% below their all-time highs.

Stablecoins and competition are a real risk. Analysts at The Motley Fool, including Anthony Di Pizio, point out that the rise of USDC, RLUSD (Ripple's own stablecoin), and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could undermine XRP's core value proposition as a bridge currency in cross-border payments. RLUSD's internal growth at Ripple could in fact cannibalize XRP usage on the network.

Funding rates and open interest: According to CoinGlass data, funding rates on XRP perpetuals are moderate and not in extreme negative territory — indicating that bears are not overrepresented in the derivatives market, but that there are also no aggressive long positions seeking entry. Open interest has remained stable, without the large spikes that typically signal aggressive directional moves.

Spot demand is there — but RSI and macro suggest the market needs a pause before $1.21 can be seriously tested.

Technical picture

XRP is trading in a tight range between $1.10 and $1.21, and the technical picture is ambiguous but with a slight negative bias given macro conditions.

Support:

• $1.10 — primary support level, tested multiple times in July 2026. A daily close below this level opens downside toward the $0.95–$1.00 zone, where volume profile data (from Kaiko) shows the next concentration of historical trading volume.
• $0.95 — secondary support, corresponding to the consolidation level from Q1 2026.

Resistance:

• $1.18 — first resistance level, where sellers have been active over the past two weeks
• $1.21 — upper boundary of the current trading range. A break and hold above this requires volume confirmation and ideally a positive CLARITY Act development
• $1.35–$1.40 — next meaningful resistance zone if $1.21 is broken

RSI (daily): Indicates overbought conditions at the current price level of $1.14. Historically, RSI in this zone has either preceded a pause or triggered 5–10% consolidation before a new test.

MACD: Positive crossover on the daily chart, but with fading momentum — histogram bars are shrinking. This is consistent with a picture where spot demand is holding the price up, but lacks the additional catalyst needed to take out resistance.

Volume profile: Thinner trading volume above $1.18, meaning a potential upside break could move quickly — but also that there is little natural support in that zone on a pullback.

What to watch

1. CLARITY Act — Senate vote

This is the single factor that will drive the largest individual move in XRP in the near term. Any news of progress toward passage could trigger a rapid move toward $1.35–$1.40. Further delay or rejection will likely push XRP toward and below the $1.10 support. Monitor the Congressional Record and Ripple Labs' official communications channels closely.

2. Bitcoin and broad crypto sentiment

With Fear & Greed at 27/100 and BTC at $64,001, it is difficult for altcoins to break out. A stabilisation or rally in BTC above $66,000–$67,000 would remove a significant headwind for XRP.

3. Spot XRP ETF inflows (weekly)

Bloomberg's ETF tracker and Farside Investors publish weekly flow data. Accelerating inflows above $50–100 million per week would confirm that the institutional demand floor is holding and supports the buy-the-dip case.

4. Ripple MiCA expansion in the EU

Watch for concrete announcements of new European banking partnerships or payment volumes following the MiCA licensing in July 2026. This is a potential positive news catalyst that the market has not yet fully priced in.

5. Price levels to monitor:

• $1.10 — critical support. Hold = bullish bias maintained
• $1.21 — resistance. Break with volume = target $1.35
• $1.00 — psychological level and potential capitulation point
• $1.35–$1.40 — next meaningful target on a positive catalyst

6. Ripple monthly XRP release

Ripple releases 200–400 million new XRP monthly. The next release window should be monitored — a larger-than-expected release could push the price down in a weak spot demand environment.