APREX · EST. 2026
Tesla Sits on a Potential Goldmine
When SpaceX likely goes public this summer, it could send Tesla stock in a new direction. Tesla has built up a stake of nearly 19 million SpaceX shares, recorded at $2 billion in its Q1 2026 reporting using the "fair value" methodology with the equity method. Additionally, the company has already realized $890 million in associated revenues, according to Yahoo Finance.
SpaceX filed its S-1 registration with the U.S. financial supervisory authority SEC on May 20, 2026, and the stock is expected to trade under the ticker SPCX on Nasdaq from around June 12. With a target valuation of between $1.75 and $2 trillion, this could become the largest IPO in history – Saudi Aramco's record listing in 2020 brought in $29 billion by comparison.
The Revenue Engine Behind the Rocket Company
SpaceX reported revenues of $18.7 billion in 2025, a 33 percent increase from the previous year. The Starlink division accounted for the largest share with $11.4 billion (61 percent of total revenue) and serves over 10 million customers globally. Launch services contributed $4.1 billion based on over 160 successful launches, while the AI infrastructure division xAI accounted for $3.2 billion.
However, the downside is significant. The company incurred a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 and an additional $4.28 billion in the first quarter of this year alone. Accumulated losses have now reached $41.3 billion. Strategy analyst Ben Thompson of Stratechery has characterized the company's claimed "total addressable market" of $28.5 trillion as "absurd," according to research material, and Professor Scott Galloway has called the listing prospectus a "train wreck" due to the combination of losses and high valuation.
Impartiality Questions and Intertwined Interests
The relationship between Tesla and SpaceX is not exclusively financial. SpaceX and affiliated companies purchased goods and services from Tesla totaling $650 million in 2025. Of this, $506 million accounted for Megapack battery systems for xAI's data center operations, while $131 million went to Cybertruck purchases – a significant portion of total Cybertruck sales.
Organizations such as SOC Investment Group and the American Federation of Teachers have urged the SEC to scrutinize SpaceX's accounting practices and auditor independence, especially in light of transactions with Musk's other companies. Morningstar analyst Lindsey Stewart has pointed out that Elon Musk controls 85.1 percent of the voting power in SpaceX, giving him dominant power across both companies and raising questions about whether the terms of the mutual agreements benefit Tesla shareholders under commercial market conditions.
Passive Capital Forced In
An important mechanism for Tesla shareholders is not just the direct valuation effect, but the market dynamics the listing triggers. Due to recently revised Nasdaq index rules, SpaceX is expected to be included in the Nasdaq 100 index as early as its 15th trading day – around July 6, 2026. This means that passive index funds will automatically have to buy SpaceX shares, which could provide sustained buying pressure regardless of fundamental objections.
However, the low free float of only 3–4 percent of total shares may limit the actual exposure in index funds, notes Jacob Friedman, Chief Investment Officer at Focused Wealth Management, according to research material: The high headline figure does not necessarily reflect proportional capital flow.
Historical analysis also shows that IPOs with a value exceeding $50 billion have, on average, resulted in a stock price decline of 31.9 percent during the first year after their introduction – a statistic investors should consider.
What Does This Mean for Norwegian Investors?
The SpaceX listing itself is not directly listed in Norway, but Tesla stock (TSLA) is actively traded among Norwegian private investors and through Oslo Børs-listed funds. A positive market reaction to the SpaceX IPO could provide tailwinds for TSLA, which already has its SpaceX exposure partially priced in. Oil prices and the OSEBX currently have limited direct connection to the event, but a global risk sentiment like the current one – the Fear & Greed index measures 22 out of 100 – suggests that investors should price in scenarios of disappointing stock performance after the IPO.
The source Yahoo Finance emphasizes that a successful SpaceX IPO will provide a transparent market benchmark for Tesla's stake for the first time, potentially removing what analysts have called a "hidden asset" from Tesla's balance sheet and making it visible to the market.
This article was written using large language models under editorial supervision by Aprex. Content is source-verified and auditable. Read our method →