Peace deal could unlock $60 billion in oil revenues for Iran

Iran could return to the oil market

A possible peace deal between the US and Iran could pave the way for the country to openly sell oil on the world market again. According to the Wall Street Journal, this could generate revenues of more than $60 billion per year from oil exports — a figure that reflects Iran's considerable spare capacity and low production costs.

Iran has long been excluded from the major international oil markets due to American and Western sanctions. Despite this, the country has found alternative routes to sell petroleum, particularly to China and through grey markets.

Limited impact on global prices?

Market expert Richard Haass has told the Wall Street Journal that even though sanctions relief could bring 140 million barrels to the market, this is likely too little to fundamentally stabilise energy markets. At the same time, it is enough to give Iran greater financial room to manoeuvre — something that in itself could complicate negotiations.

With a global oil market that trades more than 100 million barrels daily, Iran's potential contribution would represent a moderate but not insignificant addition. The effect will also depend on OPEC's response and overall demand trends.

Crypto and the shadow economy as an alternative

During the sanctions period, Iran has not been idle. According to a report from Chainalysis, Iranian crypto wallets received the equivalent of $7.8 billion in 2025 — a marked increase from $3.17 billion in 2023. TRM Labs estimates the total Iran-linked crypto market at around $10 billion for the same year.

Bitcoin mining has played a central role: Iran is estimated to account for approximately 4.5 percent of global Bitcoin mining, and the electricity used is equivalent to roughly 10 million barrels of crude oil per year. This has effectively made crypto mining an indirect form of energy export.

The US Treasury Department sanctioned the Iranian crypto exchange Nobitex in June 2026 — a platform with more than 11 million users — after it was accused of having handled more than half of the country's digital capital flows.

What does this mean for the oil market?

If a peace deal does materialise and sanctions are eased, Iran will face a choice between rapidly scaling up traditional oil exports or continuing its established shadow economy. Much suggests the transition will not happen immediately: Iran's oil and gas infrastructure has deteriorated after years of limited foreign investment.

For global energy markets — including Norway's — Iran's return to the open market would primarily affect oil prices through increased supply. Norwegian oil companies operating on the Norwegian continental shelf monitor price movements closely, and a sustained price dampening could affect activity levels in the North Sea.

So far, however, no deal has been confirmed, and the WSJ report is based on sources familiar with the negotiations. The market should treat this as a developing scenario, not as an established fact.

Sanctions relief could give Iran enough revenue to strengthen its regional position — without necessarily turning the oil price on its head

Uncertainty dominates the picture

With the Fear & Greed Index at 14 out of 100 and a clearly risk-averse market climate, there is currently little to suggest that investors are pricing in an imminent normalisation of Iranian oil exports. Any concrete progress in negotiations would likely produce immediate moves in commodity prices — and particularly in Brent contracts, which serve as the reference price for Norwegian oil.