TL;DR

Fabricated winnings for the camera

Prediction market Polymarket allegedly paid content creators to simulate successful bets on fake websites designed to resemble the real platform, the Wall Street Journal reports. The videos were then distributed as marketing material across social media.

WSJ reviewed a total of more than 1,100 influencer-produced videos and concluded that none of the wagers presented as genuine winnings — with a combined value of around $1.9 million — had actually taken place on Polymarket's real platform. The sourcing is WSJ's own review, as reported by The Block.

Polymarket had not commented on the matter to The Block at the time this article was published. The allegations are serious, but for now are documented solely through WSJ's report — a fact that should be weighed when assessing the story.

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users can bet money on the outcome of future events — from elections and sports results to market movements. The platform gained widespread international attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when it was used as an indicator of electoral outcomes.

None of the $1.9 million in winning bets shown in the promotional videos were real, according to WSJ

Regulatory backdrop: Tightening rules worldwide

The story hits a market already under pressure from regulators around the world. In the United States, both the FTC and the SEC have stepped up enforcement against misleading crypto marketing in recent years.

FTC rules, updated in 2023 and taking effect in 2025/2026, require clear and prominent disclosure of all paid partnerships. Paid content must be labeled with words such as "sponsored" or "ad" at the top of the post — not buried behind a "show more" button. Violations can trigger civil fines of more than $50,000 per infraction, according to the FTC's own guidelines.

The SEC, for its part, has cracked down hard on celebrities and influencers who promote crypto products without disclosing compensation. Among the most high-profile cases is Kim Kardashian, who in 2022 was fined more than one million dollars for failing to disclose payment for promoting EthereumMax tokens.

1,100+
Videos reviewed by WSJ
$1.9M
Fake winning bets shown in the videos

The UK and Europe follow suit

Outside the United States, regulations are tightening as well. The UK's Financial Conduct Authority coordinated an international operation in June 2025 that resulted in three arrests and more than 650 requests for content removal from social media in the UK alone, according to research material obtained by 24markets.

In France, it has been illegal since June 2023 to use influencers to advertise crypto products from companies not registered with the financial regulator AMF. Violations can be punished with up to two years in prison and a fine of €300,000.

Faltering trust in an already turbulent market

The story emerges at a time when the crypto market is firmly in a risk-off regime. The crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 23 out of 100 — well into "extreme fear" territory. Bitcoin is trading at around $63,600.

Spot trading volume on centralized exchanges fell to $679 billion in April 2026 — the lowest level since October 2023 and a decline of 46 percent compared with the same period last year, according to data obtained by 24markets. The number of new crypto app downloads fell by nearly 57 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared with a year earlier.

Researcher Joseph Pacelli, who has studied the impact of crypto influencers' advice, concludes that following such advice has on average produced "significantly negative returns" — and that penalty levels for misleading marketing should be raised to serve as a genuine deterrent.

What happens next?

It remains unknown whether U.S. authorities will open a formal investigation into Polymarket based on WSJ's findings. The platform operates in a legal grey zone in the United States, where prediction markets have long held a complicated regulatory status.

What Kate Dawson at KPMG describes as a "more cautious approach" by the crypto industry toward influencer marketing, however, appears to be coming under ever-increasing pressure — not least now that the full scope of the matter is being documented in detail by one of the world's largest financial newspapers.