APREX · EST. 2026
TL;DR
- Nvidia reported revenues of $81.62 billion in Q1 FY27, up 85 percent year-over-year – well above analysts' estimates
- The data center division alone accounted for $75.25 billion, equivalent to over 90 percent of total revenue
- The company announced a new $80 billion share repurchase program and significantly increased its dividend
- Despite the solid figures, the stock opened weakly – a pattern that has repeated for four consecutive quarters
Record results, but the market was not impressed
Nvidia delivered its strongest quarterly report ever on May 20, 2026. Revenue ended at $81.62 billion for Q1 of fiscal year 2027, which concluded on April 26, 2026 – a result that beat analysts' consensus estimate of $79.2 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.87, above the expectation of $1.78, according to data reported by Nasdaq Markets.
The data center division continues to completely dominate the picture with revenues of $75.25 billion, a growth of 92 percent year-over-year. For the upcoming quarter, the company guided for $91 billion in revenue – plus/minus two percent.
The company also announced a new $80 billion share repurchase program and more than doubled its quarterly dividend, from $0.01 to $0.25 per share.
Nevertheless, the stock fell about 0.5 percent when the market opened the day after the report.
"Priced in" – analysts are divided
The reaction was not surprising for those who follow the pattern closely. Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com, characterized the report as "an ordinary beat – better than expected on the top and bottom lines with guidance above consensus – and one that was well telegraphed in advance," according to Nasdaq Markets.
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, was even more direct: "The stock has traded almost exclusively at slightly lower levels since we got the results. This is despite – or perhaps because – the company beat consensus estimates. It shows how much good news is already priced into NVDA before each report."
BofA analyst Vivek Arya raised his price target to $350 after the report but acknowledged that "Nvidia stock has fallen in three of the last four quarterly reports." He advised investors to "ignore this noise."
It shows how much good news is already priced into NVDA before each quarterly report. — Steve Sosnick, Interactive Brokers
What history actually says
To understand what typically happens to Nvidia's stock after a strong report, it is useful to look at historical patterns systematically.
From February 2022 to February 2026, the average one-day stock price reaction after a report was only plus 2.4 percent, but the median movement was almost zero. Over a week, the median return was actually negative – minus 3.5 percent – and ten out of 17 reports ended with a stock price decline within seven days, according to Nasdaq Markets' historical review.
For the most recent four reports, the picture has been even clearer: The average one-day reaction was minus 1.5 percent, and the average return after one week was minus 3.7 percent.
Over time, the picture is far more positive
Where the picture turns is when the investment horizon is extended. Over the last 17 quarters, Nvidia's stock has risen an average of 6.1 percent in the month following a report, with a "win rate" close to 59 percent.
Looking even further ahead, data from 2016 shows that while the stock only rises 55 percent of the days immediately after the report, the proportion increases to 84 percent over one year. The median one-year return after a quarterly report has been 87.6 percent.
The most spectacular single reaction came in May 2023, when Nvidia's stock rose 38.1 percent in one day after the company presented figures and guidance that practically initiated the generative AI investment cycle among hyperscalers. Six months later, the stock had risen an additional 56 percent from that level.
Nvidia in a league of its own
The company is now far more than a GPU manufacturer. CEO Jensen Huang described the situation as follows: "The build-out of AI factories – the largest infrastructure expansion in human history – is accelerating with extraordinary speed."
This characteristic is supported by the company's own figures. The data center division now generates more than nine out of ten revenue dollars for the company, and its growth rate of 92 percent year-over-year for the latest quarter surpasses most comparable companies in the sector.
What does this mean for investors?
The source material from Nasdaq Markets paints a clear picture: Nvidia is a company that consistently delivers above expectations, but where the short-term stock price reaction is unpredictable – and for the last four quarters, systematically negative after the report. Investors who have tried to "buy on the report" have, on average, lost money in the first week.
A longer horizon fundamentally changes the equation. The AI infrastructure investments driving Nvidia's growth are not something the market considers temporary. The question is not whether the company delivers – it almost always does – but whether the stock price already fully reflects the positive news.
In a market characterized by risk aversion, with the Fear & Greed Index at 29 out of 100 as of May 21, 2026, short-term noise in Nvidia's stock may be particularly noticeable. The historical pattern nevertheless suggests that patient investors have repeatedly been rewarded.