Hormuz traffic grinds to a halt: Iran negotiations collapse

Tanker traffic through the world economy's narrowest chokepoint has nearly vanished

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the strategic waterway that handles an estimated 20–25 percent of the world's seaborne oil trade — has nearly ground to a halt. According to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, no outbound tankers were recorded on Friday morning. Shipping operators are pulling back from immediate transit following news that US-Iran negotiations have collapsed, reports OilPrice.com.

This comes just days after markets had recovered on hopes of diplomatic progress.

"They are DONE! We are playing out the 60 days. They're not getting any money, not ten cents!" — Donald Trump

Trump sets the 60-day deadline

President Donald Trump was unsparing in his characterization of the situation. In a statement, he rejected the notion that the US had come to Iran out of necessity, and announced that Washington would keep sanctions fully in place for an additional 60 days. No sanctions relief will be granted, according to Trump.

This marks a sharp retreat from what was perceived in mid-June as a diplomatic opening. According to research data, Brent crude has already experienced extreme volatility since the escalation began earlier this year — with prices briefly surpassing $120 per barrel in early March following Iran's closure of the strait, before falling back to around $83 when a ceasefire was announced on June 15.

Sanctions crushing an economy

The backdrop to the diplomatic deadlock is decades of escalating sanctions. Since withdrawing from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018, the US has imposed increasingly stringent restrictions on Iran. Iran's oil exports fell from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2018 to under 300,000 barrels per day in 2019, according to available data. Inflation in the country surpassed 50 percent in 2023, and the Iranian rial has lost more than 80 percent of its value against the dollar since 2018.

In June 2026, the US Treasury Department also sanctioned Nobitex — Iran's largest cryptocurrency platform — along with three other Iranian digital platforms, after Treasury determined they accounted for more than 50 percent of all Iranian crypto inflows in 2025 and facilitated transactions linked to the IRGC and sanctions evasion.

Crypto markets react to geopolitical turbulence

Bitcoin is trading around $62,929 on Friday, with a Fear & Greed Index reading of 14 out of 100 — firmly in extreme fear territory. This is consistent with a pattern seen throughout this conflict: the cryptocurrency fell from around $66,000 to $63,000 when tensions peaked in late February, and dropped further to below $61,000 when Iran re-declared the strait closed in June.

It is worth noting, however, that expert assessments are divided. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas has pointed out that Bitcoin actually proved relatively resilient compared to traditional safe havens for much of the crisis, with approximately $2 billion flowing into Bitcoin ETFs — while gold ETFs saw outflows of $3.8 billion over the same period. Duke University academic Campbell Harvey nonetheless cautions against calling Bitcoin "digital gold," arguing it still behaves primarily as a high-beta risk asset during geopolitical shocks.

What happens next?

Market participants are now watching closely to see whether Trump's 60-day threat materializes into further escalation steps, or whether new diplomatic channels emerge. The history of the past six months shows that the situation can turn quickly: a single peace announcement on June 15 sent Bitcoin up 2.1 percent and wiped out roughly $150 million in crypto short positions within hours.

For Norwegian energy companies and Equinor investors, oil price volatility in the Hormuz region remains the most critical variable to monitor. Oslo Stock Exchange-listed oil equities will likely respond swiftly if Brent crude moves back toward the highs seen in March.

Sources: OilPrice.com, Bloomberg, Capital.com, crypto.news, US Department of the Treasury