APREX · EST. 2026
New Strikes Could Come as Early as This Weekend
According to reports cited by Seeking Alpha, the US and Israel are in the process of coordinating what is described as the most intensive bombing campaign yet against Iranian energy targets. The report, which as of publication has not been officially confirmed by either Washington or Jerusalem, identifies power plants and oil refineries as primary targets, with a possible execution window as early as this weekend.
The sourcing remains thin for now, and 24markets stresses that unconfirmed military plans should be read with caution. Even so, markets are already pricing in the risk.
Even brief disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz could send Brent toward $108 per barrel, according to Bloomberg Economics analysts
Oil Markets Have Been Reacting Throughout 2026
The conflict's escalation has left clear marks on commodity markets since early this year. When Israel struck the South Pars gas field and the Asaluyeh refinery on March 18, 2026, Brent crude jumped 5 percent to $108.66 per barrel, while WTI rose 2.54 percent to $98.65, according to research reviewed by 24markets.
SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye commented at the time that damage to the South Pars field alone affected close to 12 percent of Iran's total gas production and halted gas deliveries to Iraq.
As recently as July 29 of this year — two days before this article was published — Brent rose again by 3.1 percent to $84.58, as a direct consequence of reports of increased military activity.
The Strait of Hormuz: The Critical Bottleneck
Underlying the price reactions is a fundamental vulnerability: the Strait of Hormuz, through which an estimated 20 percent of the world's oil and LNG supply flows, has been subject to disruptions and partial closures at various points. Analysts at Bloomberg Economics have calculated that even a brief total transit ban could push Brent to $108.
Goldman Sachs, for its part, has warned that European gas prices could rise by 130 percent if safe passage is not restored within one month — and could exceed €100 per megawatt-hour if the crisis persists for two months.
Risk Sentiment Is Also Weighing on Crypto Markets
As part of the broader risk picture, Bitcoin is trading around $62,921 today, with the Fear & Greed Index at 25 out of 100 — a level classified as "extreme fear." While oil prices and Bitcoin mining are not directly linked to any significant degree — Luxor Technology's Hashrate Index estimated in March 2026 that approximately 90 percent of global hashrate operates in countries where electricity prices are weakly correlated with crude oil prices — the indirect channel through risk appetite and macroeconomic pressure is real.
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill warned in July 2026 that energy price swings stemming from the Iran conflict could persist into 2027 and force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer, which historically weighs on risk assets.
What Happens Next?
If strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure are carried out this weekend at the scale suggested by sources, commodity markets will likely open with sharp moves on Monday. Analysts will be watching particularly closely for:
- The Strait of Hormuz: Will Iran respond with further restrictions on shipping?
- Brent crude: Will the $85 level hold, or are we heading for a new surge toward the $100 zone?
- European gas: Goldman Sachs' 130-percent scenario has not been ruled out
- The Norwegian economy: Higher oil prices are in isolation positive for Norwegian export revenues and the Government Pension Fund, but rising global inflation could dampen growth among trading partners and present Norges Bank with a more difficult balancing act
Markets are on alert. The next 48 hours could prove decisive.
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