US halts strikes – markets react immediately

The week kicks off with sharp moves in commodity and equity markets after US forces ended their military strike operations over the weekend. There are no signals yet that a formal peace agreement is imminent, but the ceasefire alone has been enough to unleash significant risk appetite in markets, according to ForexLive.

FX market analysts had reportedly flagged this type of weekly open as early as Friday, and the first hours of trading on Monday confirmed those expectations. The challenge going forward, ForexLive notes, will be whether the gains can be sustained through the session – particularly given that the market is waiting for fresh signals from Washington on what the next step in negotiations with Iran will be.

The challenge will be holding onto gains through the day – markets are waiting for Trump's next move in the Iran negotiations.
Oil price drops 6% – stock futures surge at the start of the week - Bilde 1

Oil decline dominates commodity markets

Brent crude falls 5 percent, while WTI crude is down 6 percent to $83.80 per barrel in early Monday trading – a drop of $5.42 from Friday. Moves of this magnitude in the oil market within a single session are rare, and it illustrates the extent to which geopolitical tension had been priced in.

-6%
WTI oil price decline Monday
+1.4%
Nasdaq futures weekly open

Gold is moving in the opposite direction from what traditional expectations would suggest during geopolitical de-escalation: the metal is up $35 to $4,088 per ounce. This may indicate that investors are still seeking safety, but not necessarily through the oil risk premium that had been priced in during the conflict.

Oil price drops 6% – stock futures surge at the start of the week - Bilde 2

Equities and Nasdaq take the lead

S&P 500 futures opened 60 points higher, quickly settling back to around 50 points above Friday's closing level. Nasdaq futures are more optimistic, up 1.4 percent. In addition to the geopolitical relief, focus this week will shift to earnings season, with several major companies expected to report results.

Nasdaq futures are leading the charge – but markets remain on guard for a reversal if diplomatic negotiations break down.

Crypto follows risk sentiment – but loosely

Bitcoin is trading around $65,382 at the time of writing, in a market that the Fear & Greed Index characterizes as "extreme fear" with a score of 26 out of 100. It is worth noting that the crypto market's correlation with traditional markets is complex and shifting.

Research shows that in Q2 2026, Bitcoin had a 30-day rolling correlation with WTI crude of 0.71, while its correlation with the S&P 500 stood at 0.12 during the same period – down from 0.58 in Q4 2025. This means that a day like today, where oil falls and equities rise, does not necessarily send a clear signal for crypto.

The IMF has also documented that correlations between crypto assets and traditional markets typically increase during risk-off episodes – making it particularly interesting that today's risk-on open is accompanied by such a muted crypto reaction.

Uncertainty clouds the outlook

ForexLive emphasizes that the geopolitical news flow will continue to drive intraday moves. Without a concrete agreement between the US and Iran, markets remain vulnerable to sharp reversals. If the Trump administration signals a harder line during the trading day, some of the early gains in equities – and the decline in oil – could quickly unwind.

Investors should treat today's opening moves with caution until there is more substance from the diplomatic front.