XRP's 44% rally brings aggressive leverage back — estimated leverage ratio at highest since January

What's driving the move

The XRP rally is rooted in a combination of macro tailwinds and XRP-specific catalysts that accumulated throughout 2024 and into 2025–2026. The most significant long-term driver remains the SEC settlement: the August 2024 ruling, in which Ripple was ordered to pay $125 million rather than the SEC's original demand of around $2 billion, served as a legal "all-clear" for many institutional players who had been sitting on the sidelines (Reuters, August 2024).

In addition, ETF filings from WisdomTree, CoinShares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and 21Shares have created sustained expectations of a spot XRP product being approved in the US — a narrative that historically drives a premium into futures markets long before any potential launch. The stablecoin RLUSD, launched by Ripple in late 2024, has reached a market cap of over $2 billion according to Ripple data, with nearly $1 billion of that sitting on the XRP Ledger — boosting the network's native activity and providing fundamental support for XRPL's validation as a transaction layer.

The short-term acceleration, however, is largely futures-driven. CryptoQuant data shows that the estimated leverage ratio — the relationship between open interest and exchange holdings — has returned to levels last seen in January 2026, a period that was followed by a sharp correction. Futures volume running five times spot volume is not a sign that long-term investors are accumulating; it is a sign that short-term speculators are scaling up exposure with borrowed funds.

Funding rates, which represent the ongoing cost of holding long positions in perpetual futures, will typically be pushed positive in such regimes — making the long side more expensive to hold and increasing the incentive for whale actors to sell into strength. The market is not by definition at risk of collapse, but the imbalance is documentable and measurable.

In the broader market, DXY weakness and risk appetite in traditional markets are supporting crypto prices generally. S&P 500 trends and risk sentiment (F&G 65/100) provide a supportive tailwind, but there is no guarantee that XRP will absorb a potential macro reversal any better than the rest of the market.

Key figures

Altcoin overview

XRP stands out in the altcoin space this week by combining strong price performance with a marked buildup of leveraged exposure — something that is not the case for most other top-10 tokens over the same period.

Solana (SOL) is showing solid spot activity but more moderate futures premiums, suggesting that SOL's move is more organically supported. Ethereum (ETH) has risen in line with BTC without significant leveraged overhang. BNB and AVAX are trading relatively flat on a weekly basis.

In the mid-tier, it is worth noting that ADA and LINK have seen moderate gains, while the meme-coin segment (DOGE, SHIB) is lagging — a typical pattern in early risk-on environments where capital first rotates into established altcoins with strong narratives.

XRP's relative strength is therefore partly fundamental (SEC resolution, RLUSD growth, ETF expectations) and partly leveraged momentum. That combination is potent on the way up — and potentially brutal on the way down.

Technical picture

XRP is approaching a critical technical crossroads following the 44% rally. Based on price levels established in December 2024 — when XRP peaked at $2.89 — the token is now in a zone of potentially heavy historical resistance. Price action from Q4 2024 (average $1.43, high $2.80) provides reference points for the market.

Support levels to watch:

• First support: around $2.00 — a psychological level and previously consolidated zone (confirmed by technical analysis from December 2024)
• Second support: $1.65–$1.70 — previous resistance-to-support conversion

Resistance:

• Immediate resistance: $2.65 — a level at which technical analysis from December 2024 pointed to a necessary breakout for a new bullish phase
• All-time high zone: $2.89 from December 2024

Indicators:

• RSI on the daily chart is likely in overbought territory (above 70) given the 44% move without a significant correction
• Open interest growth without a corresponding increase in spot volume is a bearish divergence signal in the short term
• MACD will show positive momentum, but the histogram typically begins to flatten on this type of overstretched move

The volume profile shows that much of the recent price acceleration occurred on thin spot-side support, meaning that any large sell orders will not encounter sufficient bid-side liquidity — a classic setup for cascading liquidations.

What to watch

Upcoming events and price levels:

• Funding rates on Binance and Bybit: If rates continue to climb above 0.05–0.10% per 8-hour interval, the long side becomes increasingly expensive to hold and raises the probability of an organized short attack
• Open interest (OI): If OI grows further while price stagnates — classic bearish divergence; if OI falls while price holds, that is a healthier sign
• Spot ETF decision: Any SEC news regarding XRP ETF filings from WisdomTree, CoinShares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, or 21Shares will act as a binary trigger
• Ripple vs. SEC — any appeal developments: Even though the main ruling has been handed down, any new legal outcomes could create volatility
• BTC correlations: If BTC loses the $75,000 support level, XRP will likely be dragged down regardless of its own fundamentals — with the leverage exposure acting as an accelerant
• $2.65 resistance: A confirmed daily close above this level would technically open the path toward the ATH at $2.89 and give bulls a technical basis for continuation
• $2.00 support: A loss of this level on high volume will trigger stop-loss orders and potential liquidation cascades given the current OI profile

Five times futures volume over spot is not a market that believes — it is a market that is betting. And bets financed with leverage tend to get forcibly unwound at the worst possible moment.

Data from CryptoQuant should be monitored daily going forward. The lesson from January 2026 is clear enough: a high estimated leverage ratio in a rallying market is not an invitation to buy — it is a risk warning.