Iran slams the door: No deal in sight

Oil prices climbed sharply on Wednesday, August 12, 2026, after Iranian authorities rejected the prospect of direct negotiations with the United States. According to Yahoo Finance, Iran has also attached conditions related to the Strait of Hormuz, amplifying fears of supply disruptions along one of the world's most critical shipping routes for crude oil.

Geopolitical uncertainty is a classic driver of higher oil prices, and markets responded quickly. Crude oil prices rose by an estimated 5–6 percent in the wake of the news, according to research data from market sources.

Iran rejects direct dialogue with the US — and oil prices are paying the price for the uncertainty
Oil prices surge: Iran hopes fade and SPR near historic low - Bilde 1

SPR below 300 million barrels — a critical threshold

Meanwhile, Yahoo Finance reports that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has now dropped below 300 million barrels. That is a level not seen in many decades, and it limits the government's room to maneuver should energy supplies come under further pressure.

The SPR was heavily drawn down in 2022 as a measure to curb high gasoline prices, and the refilling process has been slow. A low buffer level leaves the US more vulnerable to sudden price shocks, and could amplify price increases in an already strained market.

<300M barrels
US SPR level now
5–6%
Oil gain last 24h
Oil prices surge: Iran hopes fade and SPR near historic low - Bilde 2

Risk sentiment weakens — Bitcoin feels it

The oil surge is rippling through broader markets. In a risk-off environment — as indicated by the Fear & Greed Index reading of 27 out of 100 — investors tend to move toward the dollar and away from risk assets.

Bitcoin is trading around $63,750 on Wednesday, according to market data. This is consistent with a pattern observed earlier in August 2026, in which BTC fell to around $64,150 on August 10 and further to $63,480 the following day — both moves coinciding with oil rallies driven by Hormuz tensions, according to available research material.

Analyst Jonatan Randin of PrimeXBT is quoted in the research material as saying that oil does not hit Bitcoin directly, but through a chain of macro variables: "Oil sets the inflation level, which shapes the rate-cut path, which ultimately determines crypto liquidity."

It is worth emphasizing that the historical correlation between oil and Bitcoin has generally been weak. Long-term correlation over ten years is reported at just 0.02 on a weekly basis — but during periods of sharp geopolitical turmoil, it can strengthen considerably in the short term.

What happens next?

The decisive question is whether the geopolitical situation escalates or de-escalates. If Iran and the US return to the negotiating table, markets could reverse quickly. If the strait remains under pressure and the SPR stays low, energy markets will likely remain strained — with knock-on effects for the inflation outlook, the Federal Reserve's rate path, and global risk appetite.

For Norwegian investors, the oil price is particularly relevant. Higher crude prices have historically lifted the Oslo Stock Exchange through the energy sector, but combined with global risk aversion the picture could become more complex. OSEBX investors should monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz closely in the period ahead.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, PrimeXBT Research, Sultan Interactive Group (via research material).