What's driving the move

This is not an ETH-specific event — it's a macro-driven de-risking that hit an overexposed long base. Spot ETF flow has become the clearest barometer of institutional interest, and seven straight days of outflows signal that the desk is retreating just as the macro backdrop deteriorates.

BlackRock's ETHA alone accounted for $202 million in outflows on October 6 and $116.1 million the following day — clearly the largest among all issuers. Grayscale's ETHE (-$25.8M), 21Shares (-$6.3M) and Bitwise (-$5.9M) followed, while Fidelity's FETH and Franklin's EZET were flat. The contrast with Bitcoin is striking: spot BTC ETFs took in +$118.9 million the same day Ethereum bled $201.9 million — a clear divergence in institutional risk appetite between the two largest crypto assets.

The macro picture is reinforcing the pressure. Rising oil prices driven by renewed escalation risk between the US and Iran have pushed US treasury yields up and kept rate expectations stable, while a stronger dollar is putting further pressure on risk assets in general. The Coinbase Premium Index turned negative during the selloff — a signal that US institutional spot demand dried up right when it was needed most.

On the derivatives side, the skew was brutal: of the $665 million in market-wide liquidations across Binance, OKX, Bybit and Hyperliquid, the ETH share was dominated by longs at a ratio of around 90/10. A single $26 million ETH/USDC position was forcibly closed on Binance alone, according to CoinGlass.

-$506.3M
5-day ETF outflows
$164.8M
Long liquidations (24h)
$2,548
Critical support
31.6
Daily RSI

Altcoin overview

While Ethereum took the brunt of the impact, the reaction across the rest of the altcoin complex was more muted but still negative — correlation to ETH remains high during risk-off phases like this one. Bitcoin dominance rose during the selloff as capital rotating out of ETH-exposed products sought relative safety in BTC ETFs, which continued to take in capital the same week.

ETH exchange reserves fell to 14.7 million ETH, down from previous peaks above 21 million — in isolation a bullish structural signal over the longer term, but it helped little when the short side gained momentum in the derivatives market this week. Total ETF AUM for spot ETH now stands at $14.6-17.35 billion, equivalent to around 5.27% of Ethereum's market cap — still substantial, but shrinking relative to growth in the Bitcoin products.

Ethereum plunges 6% on record ETF outflows and Iran fears — $2,550 tested - Bilde 1

Technical picture

On the daily chart, Ethereum broke below the main trendline that had held since earlier this year, sending sellers further toward the $2,360 support. If the price reaches that level, it's reasonable to expect buying interest with defined risk below the next major trendline, aiming for a rally back toward $3,400. If the trendline is broken decisively, however, it opens up a bearish scenario down toward $1,900.

On the 4-hour chart, the price broke both the trendline and the $2,630 support yesterday, with sellers pressing on every test. A reaction up toward $2,630 as resistance will likely attract new sellers with defined risk above the level, while buyers need a confirmed break higher to aim for new highs.

Ethereum loses the $2,630 support and the 20-day EMA at $2,636-2,647 — the next major support doesn't come in until $2,360

The momentum indicators confirm the weak picture: daily RSI fell to 31.6-45.0, near oversold territory, while the Stochastic oscillator plunged to around 13 — a sign of strongly compressed short-term momentum. On the 1-hour chart, a new ascending trendline may be forming if the price sets a higher low, with buyers leaning on this with defined risk toward the $2,630 resistance.

The question now is whether the selloff was a pure leverage flush, or the start of a more sustained correction
Ethereum plunges 6% on record ETF outflows and Iran fears — $2,550 tested - Bilde 2

What to watch

Focus going forward is on developments between the US and Iran as well as the Federal Reserve. A de-escalation should ease oil prices, treasury yields and the dollar, which would give Ethereum some support. A prolonged standoff with direct military confrontation, on the other hand, will likely keep the cryptocurrency under pressure.

On today's calendar: Fed's Waller is giving a speech, and fresh US jobless claims figures are being published. Tomorrow the week wraps up with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey — both can affect rate and dollar expectations and thus risk appetite for ETH.

Key levels to watch: $2,548-2,560 as immediate support, $2,636-2,647 as resistance to restore bullish momentum, and the ETF flow data from CoinGlass and SoSoValue as a daily barometer of institutional sentiment. If the outflow streak continues into an eighth and ninth day, it increases the likelihood that this is something more than a pure leverage flush.