Bitcoin fights for $65,000 as Pi Network plunges to $0.09 — lack of transparency stifles listing hopes

What is driving the moves

Bitcoin: Risk-off keeps the ceiling in place

BTC has failed to establish itself above the $65,000 zone since last week, and the macroeconomic backdrop offers little tailwind. According to data from CoinGlass, open interest in BTC futures remains compressed following last week's deleveraging, and funding rates on the major perpetual markets (Binance, Bybit, OKX) are marginally negative — a sign that the market is leaning short rather than long in the near term. The volume profile for the past 48 hours shows thin liquidity between $64,500 and $65,800, making the level vulnerable to rapid moves in either direction.

The DXY (US Dollar Index) has remained stubbornly elevated over the past week, which historically correlates negatively with risk assets including crypto. The rates market continues to price in "higher for longer" from the Fed, with 2-year US Treasuries trading around 4.85% — a level that suppresses risk appetite across asset classes.

Pi Network: The transparency problem is at the core

PI is not simply a price-decline problem in isolation — it is a multi-layered trust problem. The Open Mainnet launched on 20 February 2025, and the market priced in a euphoric surge to $2.99. But since then, structural weaknesses in the project have become increasingly visible:

The KYC bottleneck is critical. With only 16 of 60 million users fully migrated (CryptoPotato/research, August 2026), the circulating supply is genuinely uncertain. Tier-1 exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase require full clarity on tokenomics and supply schedules before listing — something the Pi Core Team (PCT) has not delivered in publicly auditable form.

Centralised control is another red flag. PCT is believed to control a significant share of tokens, and the network's source code is not fully publicly available for independent review. None of the major audit firms — CertiK, SlowMist, or Hacken — have published security audits of the protocol, which is a standard requirement for tier-1 listings.

Bybit CEO Ben Zhou referred to the project as a "scam" in early 2025, citing a Chinese police warning from 2023. Pi Network rejected the characterisation, but the episode illustrates the negative sentiment building among institutional actors. Despite 86.8% of 226,000 participants voting in favour of a Binance listing in February 2025, the exchange did not proceed with the process.

On the protocol side, Stellar Protocol 23 has been activated (May 2026) with Soroban smart contracts, and Protocol 26 is being rolled out with a mandatory node upgrade deadline of 11 August 2026 — two days from now. This represents technical progress, but the market is not responding positively to protocol details alone when fundamental trust questions remain unanswered.

Only 16 million of 60 million registered Pi users have completed KYC — the remaining 44 million are sitting on tokens they cannot move or sell.

Key figures

Altcoin overview

In a broadly risk-off market, altcoin performance is mixed but with a clear downside bias:

BEAT stands out with a gain of more than +18% over the past 24 hours according to CryptoPotato, but this is occurring on very low volume and appears to be isolated momentum rather than a broader altcoin rotation. Such moves in low-liquidity environments are typically driven by short squeezes or coordinated retail activity, and should be interpreted with considerable caution.

PI is down to $0.090 and lacks catalysts for a reversal. The nearest technical support levels are $0.085 and $0.070 — the latter would represent an all-time low since Open Mainnet. The sell side is likely dominated by early adopters who have had their KYC approved and wish to realise remaining value before token-unlock pressure increases.

ETH is trading around $3,120, down approximately 1.8% from the previous week, tracking BTC in consolidation. Layer 2 tokens such as ARB and OP are down 4–6%, reflecting the general risk-off environment.

Technical picture

Bitcoin

BTC is trading in a tight range between $64,200 (support) and $65,800 (resistance). A break below $64,200 opens the door for a re-test of $62,500, which is the next solid support zone identified by volume profile analysis (VPVR high node). To the upside, a meaningful trend reversal requires a daily close above $66,500.

• RSI (14D): ~42 — not oversold, but below the neutral level of 50, confirming a short-term bear bias
• MACD (daily): The signal line is below zero and the divergence is weakly expanding to the negative side
• 200-day MA: Sitting around $63,800 and acting as dynamic support — a break below this level would be technically very negative

Pi Network

PI is in an established downtrend with no clear reversal signals:

• Support: $0.085 (local low from July 2026), then $0.070
• Resistance: $0.115 (50-day MA), $0.135 (200-day MA)
• RSI (daily): ~28 — technically oversold, but in projects with structural problems, oversold levels can persist for weeks
• Volume on the active exchanges (OKX, MEXC, Gate, Bitget) is weak and erratic — the bid/ask spread on smaller venues has been reported at 1.5–3%, which is a sign of insufficient liquidity depth

What to watch

Upcoming events and key dates:

• 11 August 2026: Mandatory deadline for Pi Network node operators to upgrade to Protocol 26, in preparation for Protocol 27. Failure to upgrade may result in nodes being dropped from the network. Watch for whether this triggers network instability or a price reaction.
• August/September 2026: The market is waiting for Pi Core Team to publish updated tokenomics documentation and details on the planned unlock of 775.8 million tokens. Any communication — or the absence of it — will be a price driver.
• FOMC September 2026: The next Fed meeting is pivotal for BTC and risk assets broadly. The market is currently pricing in one 25 bps rate cut by the end of 2026, but "higher for longer" rhetoric is tempering expectations.
• BTC $65,800: A daily close above this level is the minimum requirement to say that short-term momentum has turned. Monitor open interest and funding rates on CoinGlass as leading indicators.
• PI $0.115: The first resistance level of technical significance — requires a fundamentally positive catalyst (a listing announcement, a complete KYC resolution, or an independent security audit) to be broken.

Risk factors to price in:

For PI specifically: if the 775.8 million token unlock proceeds without a corresponding increase in demand, the supply pressure could drive the price toward the $0.05 zone. In a market already characterised by weak liquidity and limited institutional interest, the downside risk is asymmetric.